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Economics

Cash flow and fiscal terms on your production profile, with every term visible. Royalty and tax, production sharing and the Nigeria Petroleum Industry Act 2021 templates, with NPV, IRR, breakeven, tornado and Monte Carlo, in US dollars and naira.

Fiscal regimes: concession, PSC and Nigeria PIA 2021
3
IRR against the root of the NPV equation
10⁻⁹
Monte Carlo trials by default, with a fixed seed
1,000
Results in dollars and naira
US$ · ₦
Converge economics results: NPV at several discount rates, IRR, payback and government take across the top, with profitability index, breakeven prices, unit technical cost and contractor cash-flow bars.
Results for the sample field's full-life case: NPV at four discount rates, IRR, breakeven oil price and government take.

WHAT IT DOES

From a production profile to a value, with every term shown

Economics turns a production profile into cash flow. Load the profile from a decline forecast, a material-balance prediction, the integrated forecast or a paste; set prices, costs and the fiscal regime; and Converge builds the cash flow year by year, with revenue, royalty, every named tax, cost recovery, depreciation and the contractor's and government's shares in their own rows.

Value metrics follow from it: NPV at several discount rates with end-, mid- or start-of-period discounting, IRR, payback, profitability index, unit technical cost and maximum exposure. Breakeven prices are solved to zero NPV. Where the cash flow changes sign more than once, Converge reports every IRR and tells you to rely on NPV.

For Nigerian assets, the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 templates apply royalty by terrain, production and price, hydrocarbon tax, companies income tax, the cost-price ratio cap, levies and the gas flare penalty. They are screening values coded from the Act's schedules, not tax advice, and the assumptions log records every input and default.

At a glance

  • Oil, gas and NGL revenue
  • Opex, capex, depreciation and decommissioning fund
  • NPV, IRR, payback, profitability index and breakeven
  • Royalty and tax concessions
  • Production sharing: cost recovery, R-factor and tranches
  • Nigeria PIA 2021 fiscal templates
  • Nominal or real money
  • Results in US dollars and naira
  • Tornado chart
  • Monte Carlo with Latin hypercube sampling
  • Scope 1 emissions and carbon cost
  • Assumptions log of every input

KEY CAPABILITIES

Cash flow, fiscal regimes and risk

Cash flow

Every line of the cash flow, year by year, in its own row.

  • Oil, gas and NGL revenue from flat, escalated, strip or scaled price decks
  • Opex, capex, bonuses and carbon cost
  • Straight-line, declining-balance, units-of-production or PIA Fifth Schedule depreciation
  • Government take, contractor net cash flow and working interest
  • Economic-limit truncation, following SPE-PRMS
  • Optional decommissioning fund

Value metrics

The numbers an investment committee asks for, computed the way finance teams expect.

  • NPV at several discount rates, end-, mid- or start-period; mid-period by default
  • IRR by a bracketing scan, then Brent's method
  • Undiscounted and discounted payback
  • Profitability index, NPV per unit of capex, unit technical cost and maximum exposure
  • Breakeven oil or gas price at zero NPV, by Brent's method
  • Every IRR reported when the cash flow changes sign more than once

Concessions and production sharing

The common fiscal structures, configured term by term.

  • Royalty at separate oil and gas rates, severance tax and income tax
  • Loss carry-forward
  • Production sharing with a royalty and a cost-recovery ceiling
  • Profit split fixed, by R-factor, by production tranche or by cumulative production
  • Contractor tax, signature and production bonuses, and capital uplift

Nigeria PIA 2021 templates

Screening templates coded from the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 schedules.

  • Royalty by terrain and production tranche, and by price
  • Gas royalty, lower for gas sold in Nigeria
  • Hydrocarbon tax at 30% on a mining lease or 15% on a prospecting licence, onshore and shallow water only
  • Production allowance and the 65% cost-price ratio cap, with the excess carried forward
  • Companies income tax at 30%, capital allowances of 20/20/20/20/19%
  • Development levy, NDDC levy and host-community trust contributions
  • A one-click PSC template and a gas flare penalty that is not deductible

Money and currency

Nominal or real terms, dollars or naira.

  • Nominal or real money; real cash flow is deflated after nominal tax
  • Results in US dollars, and in naira from a year-by-year NGN/USD deck

Risk and emissions

Which inputs move the value, and the range they give.

  • Tornado chart on the main inputs
  • Monte Carlo with random or Latin hypercube sampling and a fixed seed
  • Uniform, triangular, normal or lognormal distributions on price, capex, opex, production and carbon price
  • Probability that NPV is negative
  • Scope 1 flaring, venting and fuel gas, with AR4, AR5 or AR6 warming factors and a carbon price

WORKFLOW

From profile to decision

  1. Load the profile

    Import a decline forecast, a material-balance prediction or an integrated-forecast scenario, or paste one.

  2. Set prices and costs

    Choose a price deck, then enter opex, capex and their timing.

  3. Choose the fiscal regime

    Concession, production sharing or a Nigeria PIA 2021 template, each term editable.

  4. Read the results

    NPV, IRR, payback, breakeven and the full cash-flow table, in dollars or naira.

  5. Test the risk

    Run the tornado and Monte Carlo, and add emissions and a carbon price.

  6. Record the assumptions

    Export the cash flow and the assumptions log with every input and default.

VALIDATION

Checked against hand sums and an independent finance library

Discounted cash flow is checked against hand calculations and an independent open-source finance library. The simplest case to check yourself: −100 then 30 a year for five years, end-of-period discounting at 10%.

CheckReferenceConvergeTolerance
NPV at 10%12.47612.47610⁻³
IRR15.24%15.24%10⁻⁹
Royalty and income tax, every year of a 10-year case (V25)Independent hand calculationMatches10⁻⁶
NPV at 10%, mid-period discounting (V26)Independent sum of discounted cash flowsMatches10⁻³
Production-sharing arithmeticHand sheet: cost-oil cap, R-factor tier, tax, government takeMatches10⁻⁹

The Nigeria PIA 2021 templates are screening values coded from the Act's schedules. They are not tax advice and are not part of this benchmark.

INPUTS AND OUTPUTS

What goes in, what comes out

Inputs

  • Production profile: oil, gas and NGL
  • Price decks and escalation
  • Opex, capex and abandonment costs
  • Fiscal regime and its terms
  • NGN/USD exchange-rate deck
  • Emissions factors and carbon price

Outputs

  • Year-by-year cash flow with every fiscal term
  • NPV, IRR, payback and breakeven prices
  • Government take and contractor share
  • Tornado and Monte Carlo distributions
  • Probability of a negative NPV

Exports

  • Cash flow CSV
  • Assumptions log (.txt)
  • econ.metrics and econ.cashFlow over the REST API and MCP

FAQ

Economics: common questions

Which fiscal regimes does Converge support?

Royalty and tax concessions, production-sharing contracts with cost recovery and R-factor or tranche splits, and Nigeria PIA 2021 templates for screening.

Is the PIA hydrocarbon tax applied offshore?

No. As the Act provides, hydrocarbon tax applies onshore and in shallow water only: 30% on a petroleum mining lease and 15% on a petroleum prospecting licence.

Are the Nigeria PIA 2021 results tax advice?

No. The templates are screening values coded from the Act's schedules, useful for comparing options. Confirm final numbers with your tax advisers.

Can I see results in naira?

Yes. Results are in US dollars, and in naira using a year-by-year NGN/USD exchange-rate deck you set.

How is IRR calculated?

By a bracketing scan, then Brent's method. If the cash flow changes sign more than once, every IRR is reported and Converge advises relying on NPV; if it never changes sign, no IRR is returned.

Put a value on the plan.